The German elections on February 23 marked a significant turning point for the country’s political landscape. The election date itself was unusual, as it was originally scheduled for September. However, the coalition government under outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz collapsed due to internal conflicts, particularly over budgetary issues. As a result, the elections were expedited, occurring just one month after U.S. President Donald Trump’s return to the White House and only a week following Vice President JD Vance’s controversial speech at the Munich Security Conference. Vance’s address openly challenged many of Germany’s core foreign policy assumptions, sending shockwaves through the country’s political and diplomatic circles.
Despite the significance of these foreign policy shifts, the election campaign in Germany largely focused on domestic issues, particularly migration and economic concerns. Defense policy, despite the increasingly volatile international environment, did not dominate the discourse. Nevertheless, the election resulted in a victory for Friedrich Merz and his conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in coalition with its Bavarian counterpart, the Christian Social Union (CSU). The alliance secured 28.6 percent of the votes, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) following at 20.8 percent. Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) suffered a significant decline, managing only 16.4 percent. A total of five parties, including the far-left Die Linke, surpassed the 5 percent threshold necessary for parliamentary representation.
While foreign and defense policy did not play a central role during the campaign, Merz wasted no time in making it a top priority. The day after the election, he outlined his three key policy focuses for any potential coalition government, placing defense at the forefront. His urgency in shifting Germany’s defense policy was soon justified by a series of dramatic events in Washington. Trump’s abrupt policy decisions—including ambushing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an Oval Office meeting, halting U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine, and suspending intelligence-sharing with Kyiv—signaled a stark departure from the security commitments that Germany and other European allies had long relied upon.
The implications of these moves were immediate and severe. Germany, like much of Europe, had grown accustomed to the post-Cold War security architecture, where the United States provided substantial military backing under NATO’s umbrella. Trump’s decisions underscored an emerging reality: European nations could no longer take U.S. military support for granted. With Russia’s continued aggression against Ukraine and the broader geopolitical instability, Germany was left with little choice but to accelerate its defense strategy and reduce its dependence on Washington.
Merz’s prioritization of defense policy signals a profound shift in Germany’s strategic thinking. Historically, German defense policy has been shaped by post-World War II pacifism and a strong commitment to multilateralism. Even after the Cold War, Germany’s military spending remained relatively modest, with a reluctance to engage in assertive defense policies. However, under increasing pressure, Germany began making incremental changes, notably through the Zeitenwende (historic turning point) announced by Scholz in 2022. This policy aimed to increase defense spending and modernize the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces. But implementation was slow, and many of the promised reforms never materialized at the scale initially envisioned.
Now, with Merz at the helm and Trump’s policies forcing Europe to re-evaluate its security strategy, Germany’s defense policy is undergoing rapid transformation. The CDU leader has vowed to increase military spending well beyond the NATO target of 2 percent of GDP. He has also advocated for deeper defense cooperation with European partners, particularly France and Poland, to build a more self-reliant European defense infrastructure. In contrast to Scholz’s cautious approach, Merz’s rhetoric suggests a willingness to take bolder steps, including potentially revisiting Germany’s stance on arms exports and nuclear deterrence discussions within NATO.
A critical aspect of Merz’s defense agenda will be revitalizing the Bundeswehr. Decades of underfunding have left the German military struggling with outdated equipment, personnel shortages, and logistical challenges. Previous efforts to reform the armed forces met resistance due to bureaucratic inefficiencies and political hesitance. However, given the growing security threats, there is now greater political will to address these issues decisively. The CDU has proposed streamlining defense procurement, enhancing cyber capabilities, and strengthening Germany’s role in European defense initiatives, such as the EU’s Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) framework.
Merz’s approach also involves recalibrating Germany’s role within NATO. With the United States becoming increasingly unpredictable in its foreign policy commitments, Germany is expected to take a more proactive stance in European security matters. This could involve increased deployments to NATO’s eastern flank, greater involvement in joint military exercises, and stronger collaboration with allies like the United Kingdom and the Baltic states. Moreover, Germany may seek to play a more influential role in shaping NATO’s strategic direction, ensuring that European interests remain safeguarded despite Washington’s shifting priorities.
While Merz’s defense policy ambitions are clear, significant challenges remain. Domestic opposition to increased military spending persists, particularly among Germany’s left-leaning parties and segments of the public that remain skeptical of militarization. Additionally, European defense cooperation has historically been hampered by differing national interests, bureaucratic hurdles, and conflicting priorities. Whether Merz can navigate these complexities and implement his vision effectively will be a key test of his leadership.
In summary, Germany’s defense policy is undergoing a rapid transformation under Friedrich Merz’s leadership. The combination of Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy and escalating global security threats has forced Germany to accelerate its military preparedness. While challenges remain, the shift marks a decisive break from the past and could redefine Germany’s role in global security for years to come. If successful, Merz’s approach may position Germany as a central pillar of European defense, reducing its historical dependence on the United States and fostering a stronger, more autonomous security framework within Europe.
